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Texas Instruments Aptitude Probability & Statistics Hard

The given bar graph shows the results from rolling one white and one red dice.

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The given bar graph shows the results from rolling one white and one red dice. Assume that the white die is fair (has an equal chance of landing on each of its faces). What is the probability that the mean score will increase after one more roll?

Dice Roll Frequency Bar Graph

Choose one option.
Show answer & explanation
Answer: C. 2/3

Read Data from the Bar Chart**:

  • Red Die Frequencies ($f_R$):

    • $1: 7$
    • $2: 8$
    • $3: 1$
    • $4: 2$
    • $5: 1$
    • $6: 1$
    • Total red rolls = $7 + 8 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 20$
    • Sum of red rolls = $1(7) + 2(8) + 3(1) + 4(2) + 5(1) + 6(1) = 7 + 16 + 3 + 8 + 5 + 6 = 45$
  • White Die Frequencies ($f_W$):

    • $1: 3$
    • $2: 3$
    • $3: 4$
    • $4: 3$
    • $5: 3$
    • $6: 3$
    • Total white rolls = $3 + 3 + 4 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 19$
    • Sum of white rolls = $1(3) + 2(3) + 3(4) + 4(3) + 5(3) + 6(3) = 3 + 6 + 12 + 12 + 15 + 18 = 66$
  1. Calculate Current Overall Mean Score ($\mu$):

    • Total number of rolls so far: $N = 20 + 19 = 39$
    • Total sum of scores so far: $S = 45 + 66 = 111$
    • Current mean score:
      $$\mu = \frac{111}{39} \approx 2.846$$
  2. Condition for Increasing the Mean:

    • Let the next roll of the fair white die be $X \in {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}$.
    • The new mean after $N+1$ rolls is $\mu_{\text{new}} = \frac{S + X}{N + 1}$.
    • The mean score increases ($\mu_{\text{new}} > \mu$) if and only if:
      $$\frac{S + X}{N + 1} > \frac{S}{N} \iff X > \mu$$
    • Since $\mu \approx 2.846$, any roll $X$ satisfying $X > 2.846$ will increase the mean.
  3. Favorable Outcomes and Probability:

    • The possible outcomes of a standard 6-sided die are ${1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}$.
    • Outcomes strictly greater than $2.846$ are ${3, 4, 5, 6}$, giving $4$ favorable outcomes.
    • Since the die is fair, each face has probability $1/6$:
      $$P(X > \mu) = \frac{4}{6} = \mathbf{\frac{2}{3}}$$

Thus, the correct option is C.