Question 33 A statistician is asked to help a court determine the chance of innocence of an...
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A statistician is asked to help a court determine the chance of innocence of an accused. Witnesses in this theft case provide the following description.
They saw a Magenta-coloured van driven by a man in his early 30s with grey-beard, force breaking into a store using a rod. The criminal in question used his left hand to break open the store. The accused had his face covered with an opaque mask while attempting to commit burglary.
The statistician quotes the following events and associated probabilities. Assume these numbers to be factually correct and that the van belonged to the criminal (not necessarily the accused).
- Owning a Magenta Van -- 1 in 6000
- Man to be in his early 30s -- 1 in 5
- Man with grey beard -- 1 in 10
- Man being left-handed -- 1 in 10
After quoting these stats, the statistician then goes on to state the probability of innocence of the accused based on the above facts. Pick the correct value of probability.
Pick ONE option:
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